Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present

Will the Arab Spring lead to long-lasting democratic change? To explore this question I examine the determinants of the Arab world’s democratic deficit in 2010. I find that the percent of a country’s landmass that was conquered by Arab armies following the death of the prophet Muhammad statistically accounts for this deficit. Using history as a guide, I hypothesize that this pattern reflects the long-run influence of control structures developed under Islamic empires in the pre-modern era and find that the available evidence is consistent with this interpretation. I also investigate the determinants of the recent uprisings. When taken in unison, the results cast doubt on claims that the Arab-Israeli conflict or Arab/Muslim culture are systematic obstacles to democratic change in the region and point instead to the legacy of the region’s historical institutional framework. ∗Department of Economics, Harvard University. This paper was prepared for the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, March 22-23, 2012. I thank George Akerlof, Pol Antràs, Lisa Blaydes, Edward Glaeser, David Romer, Andrei Shleifer and Justin Wolfers for helpful discussions and comments. I also thank Gallup for sharing their data. Any remaining errors are mine.